2017年08月12日

ナイロビ生活vol38 "ケニア大統領選A"

皆さま、こんにちは。
白石です。

===

今回は前回のブログでお伝えした、ケニア大統領選についてを簡単な日本語に訳して書いてみます。

===


8月8日に行われたケニア大統領選を含む総選挙で、ウフル・ケニヤッタ現大統領が再選を果たした。しかし野党候補のアオリ・オディンガ氏は”結果は虚偽である”との声明を出し、暴動などにつながる可能性が懸念されている。

IEBC(Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission-第三者選挙管理委員会)は現地時間11日(金)午後10時過ぎに最終結果を発表した。ウフル・ケニヤッタ氏の支持率は54.20%(8,205,489票)、アオリ・オディンガ氏の支持率は44.91%(6,798,007票)である。


===

オディンガ氏は投票日8日の速報発表を受け、記者会見を行い「この結果を”a Complete Fraud”(完全な詐欺)」と呼び、選挙データベースへの精巧なハッキングが計画され、それが実行されたと語っている。7月末に不可思議な死を遂げた、Chris Msando氏のパスワードを用いてハッキングされたとも述べた。彼は第三者選挙管理委員会の幹部だった。彼によれば、ハッカーは「データベースの全体を制御し結果を大幅に変更した」とされている。しかし、この記者会見では「ハッキングされたとの情報の発信源」についての言及はされていない。この声明を受け、第三者選挙管理委員会は「この結果は暫定的である」と強調した。第三者選挙管理委員長であるWafula Chebukati氏は「オディンガ氏の主張が真実であるか慎重に調べ、最終発表前にシステムを通さない投票資料原本の提出を命じた」と語った。

しかし、オディンガ氏は彼の支持者に対し、ケニヤッタ氏の再選を受け入れないように伝え、その結果、首都ナイロビ、ケニア西部の幾つかの都市で大規模な暴動が行われた。警察はキスムで1件の暴動を抑えるために催涙スプレーを使用したと認めた。またナイロビ市のマテアレムスラムで2人のデモ隊が警察によって撃たれたと、語る人もいる。
元首相であった、オディンガ氏は過去に3回大統領選に出馬し、いずれも落選している。2007年、2012年の大統領選でも彼は結果が虚偽であると発言し2007年には、暴動によって1400名が死亡している。

~ケニアの経済と選挙戦の背景
ケニアはアフリカ最大級の経済大国であり、この選挙による混乱によって、世界経済にも影響を及ぼしている。しかしその選挙は、民族間での争いに過ぎず政策での争いにはなっていない。7月末の第三者選挙管理委員会幹部の暗殺は国民に衝撃を与え、8日の投票日に先立ち多くの人は暴動や混乱を恐れて、比較的安全な田舎に向かった。そのため今週まで多くの企業は封鎖されている。
ケニヤッタ氏はキクユ族であり、オディンガ氏はケニア西部出身のルオ族である。実に現政府の決定権を持つ官僚の8割がキクユ族であり、あらゆる面でキクユ族が優遇されているという噂もある。

-国際的オブザーバーはなんと言っているか。
African Unionは「結果は信頼できる」と述べ、EUの代表団も結果に肯定的である。また、アメリカ政府も声明を出し、「すべての当事者と支持者に選挙管理委員会の最終発表を静かにそして辛抱強く待つよう求める、ケニアの国民に選挙管理委員会が、情報の提供を続けるよう求める。候補者は、結果に不満がある場合、暴力ではなく、憲法と法律にのっとって、申し立てを行うことが重要だ」として、冷静な対応を求めています。また父親がケニア出身のオバマ前大統領も大統領選挙を前に声明を出し、「指導者には、暴力と扇動を排除し、国民の意思を尊重するよう求める」と語った。(引用:http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20170811/k10011096701000.html

- 第三者選挙管理委員会、システム責任者の暗殺
第三者選挙管理委員会、システム責任者であった、Christopher Msando氏は7月末に何者かによって殺害されている。ナイロビ郊外の森の中で彼の遺体が発見され、彼の遺体には無数の拷問を受けたような傷があったという。

- 投票・集計のプロセス
法律では、紙のフォームによって集計され、投票所の職員が署名した電子証明書のオンラインでの提出が義務付けられている。またオディンガ氏の声明を受けて第三者選挙管理委員会は「何らかの形で電子的な操作がされていることが判明した場合、紙ベースでの確認を行うことができる」としている。オブザーバーチームを率いる、元米国務長官のジョン・ケリー氏は、「投票、集計、報告のプロセスは透明性があった」と声明を出した。

===

IEBC公式サイト(随時更新されている)
https://public.rts.iebc.or.ke/enr/index.html#/Kenya_Elections_Presidential/1

8日、オディンガ氏による記者会見
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgzmlqQxhtI

11日、最終結果後に掲載された記事

-Reuters
Eleven dead in Kenya as post-election riots flare
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-election-idUSKBN1AS0D1?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

- The NY Times
President Uhuru Kenyatta Is Declared Victor of Kenyan Election
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/world/africa/kenya-uhuru-kenyatta-president-election.html?src=twr&_r=0&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

- BBC
Kenya election: Uhuru Kenyatta defeats Raila Odinga
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-40905379?
ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

ケニア大統領選について報じた日本国内メディア

- NHK
米政府 ケニア大統領選で冷静な対応求める
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20170811/k10011096701000.html
ケニア大統領選で現職再選 野党側は受け入れず暴動懸念
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20170812/k10011097671000.html

- 朝日新聞
ケニア大統領選、混乱広がる 支持者間の衝突、死者も
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK8C5JYXK8CUHBI013.html
ケニア大統領選、現職が再選 対立候補「大規模な不正」
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK8D1S04K8DUHBI001.html

-毎日新聞
ケニア大統領選 現職が大差でリード
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20170812/k00/00m/030/116000c
ケニア大統領選 現職と元首相が接戦 国内緊張高まる
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20170808/k00/00m/030/130000c

- 日経新聞
ケニアで大統領選、現職と元首相が接戦 治安悪化の恐れ
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASGM08H7X_Y7A800C1000000/

- 時事通信
ケニアで大統領選=接戦で混乱懸念
https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2017080800718&g=int

以上です。
しらいし
posted by resultsjp at 22:25| Comment(4) | 情報

ナイロビ生活vol37 "ケニア大統領選"

皆さま、こんにちは。
白石です。

===

今回のブログでは、日本国内でも大々的に報じられているケニア大統領選に関しての情報をまとめてみました。
本ブログは現地人スタッフのAbuta Ogetoと白石で、現地でも混乱している選挙に関する情報のまとめを書いています。
次回のブログで簡単な日本語に訳し、追加でコメントを入れ更新いたします。

少し長いですが、是非ご覧ください。

しらいし
===

AN ANALYSIS OF THE INTRIGUES OF THE KENYAN ELECTION THAT WAS


After the elections which took place on Tuesday, 8th August, 2017, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta took what appeared to be an unassailable lead Friday in his bid for reelection, even as his opponent called the results fraudulent, raising fears of political violence after a bitterly contested race.
With 93 percent of the votes counted, Kenyatta led with about 54 percent, far ahead of opposition leader Raila Odinga at about 45 percent, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
But Odinga called the results of Tuesday’s election “a complete fraud,” outlining an elaborate hacking scheme that he said significantly manipulated the outcome. According to Odinga, a hacker used the login information of a top election official, Chris Msando, who was mysteriously killed last month, to enter the country’s electoral database.
He told his supporters not to accept Kenyatta’s reelection. Sporadic, mostly small-scale demonstrations popped up in the capital, Nairobi, and in parts of western Kenya, and police fired tear gas to break up at least one protest in the city of Kisumu. Witnesses said that two demonstrators were fatally shot by police in Nairobi’s Mathare slum.

The hacker, Odinga said, “took control of the entire network” and altered the results.
The electoral commission said it was not prepared to dismiss Odinga’s claim outright. It also emphasized that the results released so far were provisional. Final results, which could be released in the next several days, will offer more substantiation, the commission said.

But election officials did not explain how the near-complete results already released online could differ significantly from a more formal tally. Amid the confusion, less popular presidential candidates accepted the results as accurate and conceded to Kenyatta.
“We shall go into that and find out whether or not [Odinga’s] claims are true,” Wafula Chebukati, the head of the electoral commission, said at a news conference.
Chebukati said the panel is calling for original voting materials “for purposes of knowing and verifying before we do the final announcement.”
Odinga, a former Prime Minister, has run unsuccessfully for president three times before. In 2007 and 2013, he alleged that the results were rigged. In 2007, the country was engulfed by post-election ethnic violence that left about 1,400 people dead.

- The Washington Post
As Kenya elections draw near, country reveals an electorate divided by tribe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/as-kenya-elections-draw-near-country-reveals-an-electorate-divided-by-tribe/2017/08/05/8c47a200-789b-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html?utm_term=.5bf0ccced690

- The Los Angels Times
Kenyan opposition leader says hackers manipulated election results; at least 3 killed in protests
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-kenya-election-20170809-story.html

- Daily Nation
Poll agency explains 'unofficial' election results
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/IEBC-unofficial-2017-election-results-/1064-4051426-7019ae/index.html

Kenya’s Economy

Kenya has become one of Africa’s strongest economies and many consider it a pillar of stability in a fragile region. But its politics are still dominated by tribal loyalty, and elections bring with them the fear of violence.
Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, many people left the capital for less-volatile areas in the countryside. Msando’s death last month − and signs that he had been tortured − shocked the nation.
The vote itself was peaceful and seemingly smooth, with millions of people lining up nationwide and few major problems at polling stations, according to international election monitors.
At a news conference, Odinga urged his supporters to remain calm, even as he told them “not to accept these results.”
His running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka, added obliquely: “There may come a time when we need to call you into action.”
Officials from Kenyatta’s party urged Odinga to accept the outcome.
“Only one campaign could emerge victorious. We appeal to NASA [Odinga’s party] to stop calling results fraudulent,” Raphael Tuju, secretary general of Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, told reporters. Tuju added that the results were not yet official.
When asked at a news conference how he knew about the hacking of the election database, Odinga said he could not reveal his source.
Many businesses were closed in some of Kenya’s major cities, including Nairobi and Kisumu, with residents remaining indoors, glued to radios and televisions. In Mathare, one of Nairobi’s largest slums, Odinga supporters took to the streets Wednesday morning, and there was a brief surge of violence when a unit of police officers arrived.

Raila Odinga victory claims could be deemed illegal.

The opposition has published its own figures, putting Mr Odinga ahead of incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This contrasts with provisional electronic results giving Mr Kenyatta a clear lead in Tuesday's poll.
Electoral commission chairman Wafula Chebukati told the BBC it was the only body legally allowed to count votes.
He accused the opposition coalition of basic mathematical errors.
International observers have described the election as free and fair.
However, many fear a repeat of the violence after the disputed election 10 years ago when more than 1,100 Kenyans died and 600,000 were displaced.
On Thursday, scores of people took to the streets of Mathare, a slum in the capital Nairobi, shouting "Uhuru must go".
Mr Chebukati said that the documents containing the real results were still being sent from constituencies to their national tallying centre.
Mr Odinga has said the IT system of the electoral commission had been hacked and Kenya was witnessing the worst "voter theft" in its history.
But the commission said that while there had been an attempt to hack its system, it had failed.
The final outcome should be announced later on Friday.
African observers described Tuesday's poll as credible, while former US Secretary of State John Kerry said its integrity remained intact.
The European Union said candidates should accept losing as "natural".
Mr Kerry, who is heading the Carter Center's observer team, urged all sides to wait for the final results, and for the loser to accept defeat.
He said there were some "minor variances" but none that had so far made him doubt the poll's integrity.
The "bottom line" was that the electoral commission had in place a "transparent process of voting, counting, reporting and securing the vote", Mr Kerry added at a press conference in Nairobi.
Commonwealth observer mission head and Ghana's ex-President John Mahama said there was no reason to doubt the commission's ability to deliver a "credible election".
Raw polling data published on the IEBC's website says that with almost all of results in, Mr Kenyatta - who is seeking a second term - is leading with about 54.3%, to Mr Odinga's 44.8% share of the vote.
These suggest Mr Kenyatta is heading for a first-round victory.

Kenyan Opposition Leader Claims Election Systems Were Hacked Following Initial Results

Kenyan opposition leader, Raila Odinga, has alleged that the electoral commission’s servers had been hacked in order to sway early election results in favor of incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, ensuring that the current president remains in charge of the country.
With election results from Tuesday’s voting almost entirely counted, Kenyatta appeared to have an unassailable lead over Odinga, prompting the opposition leader to suggest that the results were a fraud made possible thanks to hackers infiltrating the system.
With 97 percent of stations totalled, Kenyatta was leading with 54.32 percent of the votes versus Odinga’s 44.8 percent, while none of the other six candidates managed more than 0.3 percent of the votes.
Following Odinga’s claims of result hacking, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), which runs the elections, promised to investigate and recount votes manually.
Wafula Chebukati, the chairperson of the electoral commission, said that they would be looking into hacking claims.
“We will come up with a methodology to verify the allegations made on hacking. For now, I cannot say whether or not the system has been hacked,” said Wafula Chebukati.

Kenyan opposition leader tweets about ‘hacking’

Without providing any source for his hacking allegations, Odinga took to Twitter to denounce the voting as fraudulent, alleging that hackers had tampered with results, which were different to those which his party had manually tallied from physical voting forms.
“What the IEBC has posted as results of the Presidential Elections is a complete fraud based on a multiplier that fraudulently gave Uhuru Kenyatta votes that were not cast,” Odinga said via his official Twitter account.
“We have uncovered the fraud. Uhuru must go home. The IEBC must be fully accountable. We know some persons gained entry into the IEBC Election Management Database & took over the mandate of Kenyans to choose leaders,” he added.
“We reject the results streamed so far and demand IEBC produces Form 34As from all polling stations before any further results are announced,” Odinga tweeted.
He backed up those claims with further allegations at a press conference in Nairobi on Wednesday.
“The 2017 general election was a fraud. The electoral fraud and fabrication of results was massive and extensive,” he told the Kenyan media.
Odinga believes that the system was hacked between 12:37pm and 4pm on election day, using the credentials of recently murdered election official Christopher Msando to hack servers and change results from polling stations.
Msando, the election commission’s head of IT, was tortured and murdered before his body was found in a forest outside of Nairobi.
“They loaded an algorithm which is a formula to create a percentage gap of 11 percent between our numbers,” Odinga continued, referencing the gap between himself and president Kenyatta at the time.

Fears of violent protests realized

Kura Yangu Sauti Yangu, a set of rights groups coordinated by the Kenya Human Rights Commission, commented on the situation via a statement, saying that the voting had been orderly, but that early results were “completely unverifiable”.
The allegations of fraud and corruption within the voting process has stirred protests, some violent, throughout the country as protesters and police clash.
At least six people have been killed in protest violence, and onlookers fear a repeat of post-2007 election violence which saw over 1000 people killed in the months following the elections.
Official results are expected to be released in the coming days, with the electoral commission allowed a week to produce final results.

Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga said he refuses to accept the results of the presidential election, even though the results haven't been announced yet.
With more than 98% of polling stations reporting, Odinga trailed incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta in a 54%-45% split at the time of writing this report.
Kenyan law states that electronic reporting must be double-checked and verified by physical paper forms signed by polling station officials before Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, or IEBC, can declare a winner.
Odinga claims the election was rigged in favor of Kenyatta, saying he doesn't "trust" the paper forms that could have been "manipulated already."
At a news conference Thursday, members of Odinga's party gave no evidence to back up his claim, citing only unnamed sources at the IEBC.
While the challenger claimed election fraud, former US Secretary of State John Kerry tried to reassure Kenyan voters their election wasn't rigged.
On Thursday, Kerry said he was confident in the integrity of the Kenyan elections and praised the country's election commission for its transparency and diligence.
John Kerry confident about Kenyan election process.
The 73-year-old Kerry is co-leading the Carter Center's mission of election observers, who released their preliminary observations a day after Odinga claimed early electronic election results had been compromisedby hackers.
"The process is still underway. But we believe that the election's commission in Kenya has put together a process that will allow each and every vote's integrity to be proven," Kerry said, noting that there were "little aberrations here and there."
He reiterated that the IEBC is still working to verify the electronic online reporting with the physical ballot forms from polling stations, as required by law.
"If anything was electronically fiddled with, there is a way to go back and absolutely ascertain what happened in the polling station," he said. "So by paper ballots, there is a protection of each and every Kenyan's vote."

- CNN
Kenyan elections 2017: What you need to know
http://cnn.com/2017/08/02/africa/kenya-election-guide/index.html

- CNN
Kenya opposition claims election system hacked, rejects early results
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/09/africa/kenya-election/index.html

Kenya's election in numbers
- Six separate ballot papers: For president, national assembly, female representatives, governors, senate and county assemblies
- 47 parliamentary seats and 16 senate seats reserved for women
- Eight presidential candidates: President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga are favourites
- Kenyatta beat Odinga in 2013 - their fathers were also political rivals in the 1960s
- A candidate needs 50% plus one vote for first-round victory
- More than 14,000 candidates running across the six elections
- More than 45% of registered voters under 35
- Some 180,000 security officers on duty nationwide in case of trouble

===

-IEBC
https://public.rts.iebc.or.ke/results/results.html

しらいし
posted by resultsjp at 03:15| Comment(2) | 情報